아래 "일본이 북한을 선제 공격한다"는 제목이 있어서
비슷하게 좀 선정적으로
잡아 보았습니다.
외국 자료 일부를 번역했는데요.
중간의 핵심적인 부분만 번역했습니다.
번역한 부분만 보셔도 중국의 대북 정책에 어떤 가능한 변화가 있는지
그리고 앞으로 있을지 감지할 수 있습니다.
중국이 북한 정권 교체에 앞장설 수 있는
가능성도 있다는 것은 상당히 충격적이지요.
출처는 www.tnr.com
Sudden Impact
by Jasper Becker
In the six months since North Korea began publicly threatening to build nuclear weapons, two of its largest trading partners—China and South Korea— have largely buried their heads in the sand. When Kim Jong Il admitted last fall that North Korea was developing highly enriched uranium, a violation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with the United States, South Korean leaders were not discouraged from pursuing then-President Kim Dae Jung's "sunshine policy" of engagement. At the end of this winter, North Korea threatened to unleash a war and test-fired missiles into the Sea of Japan; China complacently repeated that the problem was one for the United States to solve.
But, in recent weeks, China and South Korea increasingly have switched course and have begun supporting Washington's tougher line on North Korea. In fact, for the first time since the Bush administration came into office, a workable North Korea policy is taking shape. But this newfound regional coherence isn't due to the Bush administration's actions in Northeast Asia. It is a dividend from the war in Iraq.
Before late February, China and South Korea kept silent on, or even opposed, U.S. efforts to deal with North Korea. The Bush administration favored multilateral negotiations on Pyongyang's nuclear program involving all the powers in the region. But China spurned this effort, insisting that the only solution lay in acceding to Pyongyang's demands for direct bilateral negotiations with Washington. When pressed to help defuse the North Korea crisis, Chinese officials gave only vague assurances that they were somehow assisting the United States behind the scenes. For his part, South Korea's new president, Roh Moo Hyun, also supported Pyongyang's position on bilateral talks versus multilateral talks. Some in Roh's entourage even suggested that the United States was a greater threat to world peace.
But, since late February, while the media has focused elsewhere, the Bush administration has leveraged its Iraq policy to break the diplomatic impasse in Northeast Asia.
In late February, say diplomatic sources in Beijing, Secretary of State Colin Powell told China's new leader, Hu Jintao, that many hawks in Washington believe the only solution to North Korea is regime change—if necessary, by military means. Short of that, he warned that the United States might undertake a preemptive strike against Yongbyon, a nuclear reactor capable of making weapons-grade plutonium, to prevent North Korea from building nuclear weapons.
이번 2월 콜린 파월이 후진타오를 만나 "미국의 다수 강경파들은 북한 정권 교체가 북한에 대한 유일한 해법이며 필요하면 군사적 수단을 쓸 수 있다"고 말했다고 한다. 그것까지는 안가더라도 최소한 미국 정부는 영변의 핵시설을 폭격하여 북한의 핵무기 제조를 막을 것이라고 경고했다.
In Beijing's mind, the Iraq war shows Powell wasn't bluffing. Diplomats in Beijing say China now believes it has only a brief window to prevent an Iraq-like war from exploding near its borders and thus has drawn closer to the U.S. position. In a recent article in Chinese-language World Affairs magazine, Zhang Liangui, a scholar close to the leadership in Beijing, wrote, "If North Korea obtains nuclear weapons, the United States would destroy ... the Kim Jong Il regime."
중국 정부 생각에 이라크 전쟁은 파월의 말은 결코 허풍이 아님을 입증해 주었다. 북경의 몇몇 외교관들은 현재 중국 정부가 중국 국경 근처에서 이라크와 같은 전쟁을 막을 수 있는 시간은 많지 않다고 생각하고 있으며 따라서 미국 입장을 외면할 수 없다고 생각하고 있다고 한다. 최근 중국어판 "World affairs" 잡지에서 중국 지도부에 가까운 학자인 Zhang Liangui는 "북한이 핵무기를 소유하게 되면 미국은 김정일 정권을 타도할 것이다"고 썼다.
This new belief in Washington's willingness to launch preemptive action against North Korea has led China to move quickly. As Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said in early April, China—in an about-face—is now making a substantial effort to press North Korea to accept multilateral talks and to restrain its provocations. Indeed, diplomatic sources in Beijing say that, after Powell's meeting with Hu, the Chinese sent a high-ranking delegation to Pyongyang to pressure Kim.
미국이 북한에 선제 공격할지도 모른다는 이런 생각때문에 중국 정부는 아주 빨리 움직이고 있다. 호주 외무 장관인 알렉산더 다우너는 올 4월 초, 중국은 그 전과 완전히 입장이 달라져서 북한이 다자 회담을 수용하고 도발을 중지할 것을 촉구했다고 한다. 실제로 파월이 후진타오를 만난 뒤 중국 정부는 고위급 인사를 평양에 보내 김정일을 압박했다고 한다.
And, in sharp contrast to Beijing's previous vague assurances, China has put concrete pressure on the North to come to the bargaining table. In late February, China tried to teach the North a lesson by temporarily closing a pipeline from the Daqing oil fields, which are a vital source of energy for the North. In so doing, China demonstrated that it could cut off the 500,000 tons of oil it sends to Pyongyang each year, choking North Korea's already sputtering economy.
아무튼 중국은 그 전의 모호한 입장과 달리 북한에 압력을 가해 협상 테이블로 나오도록 유도하고 있다. 이번 2월 중국은 다칭 유정에서 북한으로 가는 석유 파이프 라인을 패쇄하여 북한에 압박을 가했다. 이 파이프 라인은 북한에 핵심적인 에너지원이다. 중국은 매년 평양으로 보내지는 석유 500,000톤 공급을 중단할 수도 있음을 보여준 것이다.
Most important, China has lifted its objections to a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss Pyongyang's nuclear program, a discussion that could lead to further economic sanctions against Pyongyang. Though China has continued to publicly oppose sanctions, even allowing a meeting to take place is a huge step for Beijing, which had never previously acceded to sanctions against the North—or against any other country. In so doing, Beijing may be signaling that it will accept sanctions against the North in the future.
더욱 중요한 것은 중국이 (경제 제재라는 결론을 가져올 수도 있는) 유엔 안보리가 북핵 문제를 토론하는 것을 반대하지 않았다는 것이다. 물론 중국은 공개적으로는 경제 제재를 반대하고 있으나 유엔 안보리 미팅 자체를 허용하는 것만해도 중국 정부 입장에서는 커다란 진전이다. 이렇게 함으로써 중국은 북한으로 하여금 중국이 가까운 장래에 경제 제재를 수용할 수도 있음을 시사한 것이다.
According to diplomats in Beijing, China has even begun considering how to push Kim Jong Il from power. Diplomats say some Chinese officials have privately started arguing that it would be better for Beijing to undertake actions that help remove Kim and install a new government in the North committed to economic reform and regional stability, which would benefit China. Some also feel it would be better for China, rather than the United States, to oust Kim so as not to extend U.S. influence in China's backyard.
북경의 외교관들에 따르면 중국은 이미 김정일을 권좌에서 물러나게 하는 것을 검토하기 시작했다고 한다. 몇몇 중국 정부 관리들은 사적이긴 하지만 "중국 정부가 김정일을 제거하고 새로운 정부 수립을 도와서 경제 개혁과 지역 안정을 도모하는 것이 더 낫다"는 이야기도 나오고 있다. 어떤 사람들은 미국이 나서기 보다는 중국이 나서서 김정일을 축출하는 것이 중국의 뒷마당인 북한에 미국의 영향력을 차단하는 방법이라는 이야기를 하기 시작했다.
A similar turnabout is taking place in South Korea. Roh Moo Hyun now supports the U.S. rather than the North Korean position on handling the crisis, calling for Pyongyang to engage in multilateral negotiations with China, the United States, South Korea, Russia, and Japan. South Korea's leader has also recently heaped praise on the U.S.-South Korea alliance. He has even sent noncombat troops to support the U.S.-led war effort in Iraq, infuriating North Korea, which has voiced strong support for Baghdad.
Because both China and South Korea have changed their stances, a coherent Pyongyang policy is finally developing. North Korea publicly remains defiant in the face of the growing diplomatic alliance. Kim Jong Il's regime says any sanctions will amount to a declaration of war and vows to resist all demands to disarm.
Ultimately, however, cooperation among all the powers in Northeast Asia may lead to the kind of breakthrough needed to prevent North Korea, which reportedly could build six nuclear weapons by next year, from continuing down the nuclear path. According to Bush administration sources, this week the United States will formally present a "four plus two" multilateral negotiating format for dealing with North Korea, involving China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea—and backed by all four. This multilateral format will put the United States in a stronger position to demand that any deal with Pyongyang include a serious and effective weapons-inspection regime and to prevent other countries in the region from cheating on any agreement made with the North. A deal restraining Pyongyang's nuclear ambition is hardly guaranteed, of course. But, while the media focuses on how the Iraq war could impact the Middle East, the war's first political aftershock is being felt much farther away—in icy Northeast Asia.
Jasper Becker is a journalist in Beijing and author of The Chinese.
비슷하게 좀 선정적으로
잡아 보았습니다.
외국 자료 일부를 번역했는데요.
중간의 핵심적인 부분만 번역했습니다.
번역한 부분만 보셔도 중국의 대북 정책에 어떤 가능한 변화가 있는지
그리고 앞으로 있을지 감지할 수 있습니다.
중국이 북한 정권 교체에 앞장설 수 있는
가능성도 있다는 것은 상당히 충격적이지요.
출처는 www.tnr.com
Sudden Impact
by Jasper Becker
In the six months since North Korea began publicly threatening to build nuclear weapons, two of its largest trading partners—China and South Korea— have largely buried their heads in the sand. When Kim Jong Il admitted last fall that North Korea was developing highly enriched uranium, a violation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with the United States, South Korean leaders were not discouraged from pursuing then-President Kim Dae Jung's "sunshine policy" of engagement. At the end of this winter, North Korea threatened to unleash a war and test-fired missiles into the Sea of Japan; China complacently repeated that the problem was one for the United States to solve.
But, in recent weeks, China and South Korea increasingly have switched course and have begun supporting Washington's tougher line on North Korea. In fact, for the first time since the Bush administration came into office, a workable North Korea policy is taking shape. But this newfound regional coherence isn't due to the Bush administration's actions in Northeast Asia. It is a dividend from the war in Iraq.
Before late February, China and South Korea kept silent on, or even opposed, U.S. efforts to deal with North Korea. The Bush administration favored multilateral negotiations on Pyongyang's nuclear program involving all the powers in the region. But China spurned this effort, insisting that the only solution lay in acceding to Pyongyang's demands for direct bilateral negotiations with Washington. When pressed to help defuse the North Korea crisis, Chinese officials gave only vague assurances that they were somehow assisting the United States behind the scenes. For his part, South Korea's new president, Roh Moo Hyun, also supported Pyongyang's position on bilateral talks versus multilateral talks. Some in Roh's entourage even suggested that the United States was a greater threat to world peace.
But, since late February, while the media has focused elsewhere, the Bush administration has leveraged its Iraq policy to break the diplomatic impasse in Northeast Asia.
In late February, say diplomatic sources in Beijing, Secretary of State Colin Powell told China's new leader, Hu Jintao, that many hawks in Washington believe the only solution to North Korea is regime change—if necessary, by military means. Short of that, he warned that the United States might undertake a preemptive strike against Yongbyon, a nuclear reactor capable of making weapons-grade plutonium, to prevent North Korea from building nuclear weapons.
이번 2월 콜린 파월이 후진타오를 만나 "미국의 다수 강경파들은 북한 정권 교체가 북한에 대한 유일한 해법이며 필요하면 군사적 수단을 쓸 수 있다"고 말했다고 한다. 그것까지는 안가더라도 최소한 미국 정부는 영변의 핵시설을 폭격하여 북한의 핵무기 제조를 막을 것이라고 경고했다.
In Beijing's mind, the Iraq war shows Powell wasn't bluffing. Diplomats in Beijing say China now believes it has only a brief window to prevent an Iraq-like war from exploding near its borders and thus has drawn closer to the U.S. position. In a recent article in Chinese-language World Affairs magazine, Zhang Liangui, a scholar close to the leadership in Beijing, wrote, "If North Korea obtains nuclear weapons, the United States would destroy ... the Kim Jong Il regime."
중국 정부 생각에 이라크 전쟁은 파월의 말은 결코 허풍이 아님을 입증해 주었다. 북경의 몇몇 외교관들은 현재 중국 정부가 중국 국경 근처에서 이라크와 같은 전쟁을 막을 수 있는 시간은 많지 않다고 생각하고 있으며 따라서 미국 입장을 외면할 수 없다고 생각하고 있다고 한다. 최근 중국어판 "World affairs" 잡지에서 중국 지도부에 가까운 학자인 Zhang Liangui는 "북한이 핵무기를 소유하게 되면 미국은 김정일 정권을 타도할 것이다"고 썼다.
This new belief in Washington's willingness to launch preemptive action against North Korea has led China to move quickly. As Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said in early April, China—in an about-face—is now making a substantial effort to press North Korea to accept multilateral talks and to restrain its provocations. Indeed, diplomatic sources in Beijing say that, after Powell's meeting with Hu, the Chinese sent a high-ranking delegation to Pyongyang to pressure Kim.
미국이 북한에 선제 공격할지도 모른다는 이런 생각때문에 중국 정부는 아주 빨리 움직이고 있다. 호주 외무 장관인 알렉산더 다우너는 올 4월 초, 중국은 그 전과 완전히 입장이 달라져서 북한이 다자 회담을 수용하고 도발을 중지할 것을 촉구했다고 한다. 실제로 파월이 후진타오를 만난 뒤 중국 정부는 고위급 인사를 평양에 보내 김정일을 압박했다고 한다.
And, in sharp contrast to Beijing's previous vague assurances, China has put concrete pressure on the North to come to the bargaining table. In late February, China tried to teach the North a lesson by temporarily closing a pipeline from the Daqing oil fields, which are a vital source of energy for the North. In so doing, China demonstrated that it could cut off the 500,000 tons of oil it sends to Pyongyang each year, choking North Korea's already sputtering economy.
아무튼 중국은 그 전의 모호한 입장과 달리 북한에 압력을 가해 협상 테이블로 나오도록 유도하고 있다. 이번 2월 중국은 다칭 유정에서 북한으로 가는 석유 파이프 라인을 패쇄하여 북한에 압박을 가했다. 이 파이프 라인은 북한에 핵심적인 에너지원이다. 중국은 매년 평양으로 보내지는 석유 500,000톤 공급을 중단할 수도 있음을 보여준 것이다.
Most important, China has lifted its objections to a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss Pyongyang's nuclear program, a discussion that could lead to further economic sanctions against Pyongyang. Though China has continued to publicly oppose sanctions, even allowing a meeting to take place is a huge step for Beijing, which had never previously acceded to sanctions against the North—or against any other country. In so doing, Beijing may be signaling that it will accept sanctions against the North in the future.
더욱 중요한 것은 중국이 (경제 제재라는 결론을 가져올 수도 있는) 유엔 안보리가 북핵 문제를 토론하는 것을 반대하지 않았다는 것이다. 물론 중국은 공개적으로는 경제 제재를 반대하고 있으나 유엔 안보리 미팅 자체를 허용하는 것만해도 중국 정부 입장에서는 커다란 진전이다. 이렇게 함으로써 중국은 북한으로 하여금 중국이 가까운 장래에 경제 제재를 수용할 수도 있음을 시사한 것이다.
According to diplomats in Beijing, China has even begun considering how to push Kim Jong Il from power. Diplomats say some Chinese officials have privately started arguing that it would be better for Beijing to undertake actions that help remove Kim and install a new government in the North committed to economic reform and regional stability, which would benefit China. Some also feel it would be better for China, rather than the United States, to oust Kim so as not to extend U.S. influence in China's backyard.
북경의 외교관들에 따르면 중국은 이미 김정일을 권좌에서 물러나게 하는 것을 검토하기 시작했다고 한다. 몇몇 중국 정부 관리들은 사적이긴 하지만 "중국 정부가 김정일을 제거하고 새로운 정부 수립을 도와서 경제 개혁과 지역 안정을 도모하는 것이 더 낫다"는 이야기도 나오고 있다. 어떤 사람들은 미국이 나서기 보다는 중국이 나서서 김정일을 축출하는 것이 중국의 뒷마당인 북한에 미국의 영향력을 차단하는 방법이라는 이야기를 하기 시작했다.
A similar turnabout is taking place in South Korea. Roh Moo Hyun now supports the U.S. rather than the North Korean position on handling the crisis, calling for Pyongyang to engage in multilateral negotiations with China, the United States, South Korea, Russia, and Japan. South Korea's leader has also recently heaped praise on the U.S.-South Korea alliance. He has even sent noncombat troops to support the U.S.-led war effort in Iraq, infuriating North Korea, which has voiced strong support for Baghdad.
Because both China and South Korea have changed their stances, a coherent Pyongyang policy is finally developing. North Korea publicly remains defiant in the face of the growing diplomatic alliance. Kim Jong Il's regime says any sanctions will amount to a declaration of war and vows to resist all demands to disarm.
Ultimately, however, cooperation among all the powers in Northeast Asia may lead to the kind of breakthrough needed to prevent North Korea, which reportedly could build six nuclear weapons by next year, from continuing down the nuclear path. According to Bush administration sources, this week the United States will formally present a "four plus two" multilateral negotiating format for dealing with North Korea, involving China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea—and backed by all four. This multilateral format will put the United States in a stronger position to demand that any deal with Pyongyang include a serious and effective weapons-inspection regime and to prevent other countries in the region from cheating on any agreement made with the North. A deal restraining Pyongyang's nuclear ambition is hardly guaranteed, of course. But, while the media focuses on how the Iraq war could impact the Middle East, the war's first political aftershock is being felt much farther away—in icy Northeast Asia.
Jasper Becker is a journalist in Beijing and author of The Chinese.